Oct. 17, 2022, Bloomberg posted a story with this headline: “Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden.”
“A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms,” wrote Bloomberg. “The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.”
Thursday was the two-year anniversary of that story, and guess what didn’t happen?
There’s been no recession.
“The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be ‘very slight,’ as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration,” Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove added in a smug know-it-all voice that mocked Biden for the temerity to predict what actually ended up happening.
Instead, we got this:
This has been an ongoing problem throughout Biden’s entire presidency: a press that was bored by the competence and accomplishments of one of our nation’s best administrations. In the epilogue of famed investigative journalist Bob Woodward’s latest book, he wrote:
Many of the news-breaking scenes in my prior books are stories of failures, mismanagement, dishonesty and the corruption of executive power, most regularly demonstrated in my books on Presidents Nixon and Trump.Often I have said, only half-jokingly, that when I wake up in the morning my first thought is: "What are the bastards hiding?" My experience is the hidden is often significant, even monumental.
War, this book on Biden, however, gave me what was often a real-time, inside-the-room look at genuine good faith efforts by the president and his core national security team to wield the levers of executive power responsibly and in the national interest. At the center of good governance, as evidenced in this book, is teamwork. [...]
As this book shows, there were failures and mistakes. … But based on the evidence available now, I believe President Biden and this team will be largely studied in history as an example of steady and purposeful leadership.
Our political press is broken. On everything from COVID-19, to foreign policy, to the economy, Biden’s administration has been one of overwhelming success. Not a single one of his administrative choices was felled by corruption, incompetence, or lawbreaking. So the media, like that Bloomberg story, literally made up problems that were supposedly bedeviling Biden.
Why didn’t the American people appreciate Biden’s successes? I won’t pretend he was the best communicator, but the media itself fell flat on its face, refusing to give credit where credit was due.
“The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden” Bloomberg wrote, happy to spread bullshit to smear an administration and an economy that was doing exactly what we hoped it would do.
I tried to look at this “probability model” to see what it’s up to now, but it’s hidden beyond a “professional services” paywall. I googled “professional services” and “Eliza Winger” to see if there were any public updates to that story, and I couldn’t find any. Both of the model’s authors are still employed as economists at Bloomberg, but nary a public acknowledgement of their stunning failure. The blatantly false prediction has been memory holed into oblivion.
Well, almost. Biden himself isn’t letting it go.
The White House account piled on.
It’s tragic that it isn’t happening now, but the true measure of Biden’s successful presidency will be fully understood after the dust settles from the 2024 election.
We were lucky to have him.
English (US) ·